Why Blu-Ray doesn’t matter (to Apple)

The Macbook line got a major refresh today, but one thing did not appear: the Blu-Ray capable optical drive. Not as an option, not to burn, and not even to play the newly-crowned winner of the DVD high def format wars. And after Steve Jobs’ comment that Blu-Ray is a “bag of hurt,” we probably shouldn’t plan on seeing such a thing any time soon.

And there are a lot of good reasons (from the perspective of Apple, anyway) why the company shouldn’t be in a rush to adopt it.

1. Cost. Steve’s stated reason for not offering Blu-Ray: “The licensing is so complex.” Meaning, expensive. Apple is constantly facing criticism that their products are too expensive. Even if they make it an optional install, it’s still something that Apple has to pay for (and engineer) for something that not a lot of people may want. Which brings us to point two:
2. Penetration. Tied in with cost: not a lot of people own Blu-Ray players at home, partly because not only do you have to pay a lot for the player, you also need a TV that can take advantage of the higher quality. Keep in mind that standard DVD players finally reached the installed base of VCRs in 2006, and that some people are upgrading to DVD players that “upscale” the picture. While Apple has been ambitious in championing new technologies (USB, wireless), it’s always been with an eye of the potential market. And right now, Jobs and Co. seem to be waiting for this one to grow first.
3. Storage. Some people are pointing out that beyond watching movies, Blu-Ray discs can be used for backing up 50GBs of data. The problem is, how long would it take to burn that much data to a disc? Discs are currently retailing for around $30-40 dollars for a single 50GB disc: a price that’s comparable to a USB 2.0 external drive, which has the advantage of being faster…and rewritable. And while we’re on the topic of burning, let’s talk about iMovie, which jettisoned a lot of features in order to streamline one thing: uploading to YouTube. People aren’t sharing their home movies on DVD any more, they’re uploading the best moments to the Web. Do most people have a need to burn a Blu-Ray disc?
4. Competition. And here we get to the nut. Apple is now selling their own HD movies and TV shows online via the iTunes store. Granted, it’s nowhere near as high-def as Blu-Ray, but I’m willing to wager most people are either watching them on standard def TVs, computer/laptop monitors (which are smaller, though higher in resolution), or on the minuscule screens of their video-capable iPod (a few inches across!). And in those situations, Apple’s version of high-def is “good enough.” Apple makes some money in passing along content, but their real money is in hardware: AppleTV, Computers, and the almighty iPod. Why in the world would they want to cut their own throat by improving the market for Blu-Ray: a physical disc that you have to buy from someone else, which can’t (legally) be converted for use on the iPod?

Of course, in February 2009, America’s broadcast stations will switch over to an all digital signal, which will probably spur the sales of HD TVs. But, let’s make a critical distinction between HD and Blu-Ray, the latter of which is the codec for HD video discs. Apple has long been banking that the future of content distribution is in the internet, and just because people want to watch movies in HD, doesn’t mean they have to get them on a disc.