The mystery of the five missing iPad apps

We are living in that fun time between the announcement of a big Apple product and its actual release. We’ve been here many times before, but it’s always interesting. During this period, we all get to spend a lot of time discussing, evaluating and speculating about a product that most of us have never touched. The iPad is in the unique spot of only having a two month waiting period, which is relatively short as far as Apple products go. The original iPhone had nearly a six month waiting period from announcement to launch.

Over the last week or so, there has been some simmering speculation about the iPad’s missing apps. If you look at the home screen of the iPad both in the marketing materials and the launch presentation, it seems a little empty. There is a lot of empty space there, and much of it can be attributed to the much larger screen size. But if you are really paying attention, you will realize that there are some apps missing. When compared to the iPod touch, it is missing five apps: Weather, Stocks, Clock, Calculator and Voice Memos. So, where did the apps go? Let’s take a look at a few theories.

The not ready yet theory

Some have speculated that they are not on the home screen because Apple didn’t have them updated yet for the iPad. This is based on the theory that Apple has spent a lot of time optimizing several of the other built-in apps to take advantage of the larger screen size and more capable hardware. It goes on to say that they are still preparing the other five apps and didn’t put them on the home screen so that the lucky few who got to try out the iPad wouldn’t play with apps that aren’t yet ready for prime time.

The problem with this theory is that Apple would then have to drastically alter their marketing materials and even make big changes to the way they present the iPad and its features on their website. Apple is fairly obsessive about their marketing, and I would doubt they would want that much of a drastic change from the original announcement in late January to the actual release in late March. Maybe the inclusion of one or even two apps, but give more on the front would drastically change the look of the images they are producing. I would say that since they are not there now, it’s unlikely we’ll find them there in the future.

The widget theory

This theory is built around the idea that four of the give missing apps are essentially utilities that could be easily put into a Mac Dashboard like environment. Usually, this theory is accompanied by various ideas of how this dashboard would be activated, but all seem to agree that this environment would be running in the background and might be called up from various combinations of pressing the home button in certain ways—much the same way that a double tap on the home button can be assigned to a few choice options on the iPhone and iPod Touch now.

As nice as this might be, it is pure speculation and mirrors things that those who really love the dashboard concept would like to see. In some ways, I like the idea, but I think it is unlikely for a couple of reasons. First off, if they were going to make a change like this, it would make a lot more sense for it to be in a 4.0 release of the operating system and not a point release like 3.2. I know there has been additional speculation that the iPad will actually ship with 4.0, but they have already shown it running with 3.2 so I find it much more likely that 4.0 will be saved for a new iPhone this summer. The second problem with this theory is that it ignores the fact that the Voice Memo app is once of the missing apps and doesn’t really fit well into this scenario. Third, I think it’s too complicated. As much as many want to see more sophistication to the iPhone OS, Apple has proven that they like the theory of simplicity that they are following today.

This simplicity is built around the idea that an app is easily launched with a single touch from the home screen, and that after the app is opened, the entire screen is transformed into whatever that app needs it to be. This kind of simplicity is what has kept the iPhone OS so easy to use for many that have found even the Mac interface a difficult one to master. Even my three-year-old has figured out how to launch an app, go to the home screen when she is tired of that one and then launch another. A dashboard concept that is launched in a manner other than with a button on the home screen would break this model. On top of that, it would also mean that the interface would change as you moved around the dashboard, which is not as big of a change as the other, but still doesn’t play well with Apple’s current interface designs.

Finally, some have speculated that the dashboard environment would be extensible so that you could install other “widgets” into it. This would also not play well with how software on the OS is currently installed, and could be extremely confusing to users who download a widget and expect to to just install itself on the home screen like every other app they download. Apple’s current model is built around consistency and simplicity. The OS is a transformative OS. Every time you launch an app, the entire device transforms into an interface that is unique to that app and its demands. A dashboard concept would not fit well with being simple or transformative, and is also not consistent with the rest of the OS.

A good example of Apple breaking their own simplicity model is the Voice Control function that is built into the 3GS. You access Voice Control by holding down the home button for several seconds. I tend to not use the Voice Control because I forget it is there. It’s a nice feature, but I don’t really think about holding down the home button like that, and it doesn’t present itself as an app to remind me. Several times I have showed this to other iPhone 3GS owners who never knew Voice Control existed because they never read any kind of instructions for the phone; it is so easy to use that they didn’t have to. Many also don’t know about the double tap to the home button for ipod controls or other assignable functions. Another complicated button pressing sequence or gesture would be unlikely to be any more successful than these examples.

The downloadable theory

My theory is that these apps will no longer be included as stock apps on the iPad, and likely in future releases of the iPhone and iPod Touch as well. But they would still be provided for free as apps through the App Store so they could become optional apps on the iPad. This is built around the “keep it simple” concept. It may be disappointing that it’s as simple as that, but as I stated above, I think it’s unlikely Apple will drastically change the image of the iPad they have marketed so far. That means that those apps will not be installed by default. The most obvious solution to this is that they will now become optional downloads just like Apple’s Mobile Me Gallery and iDisk apps are today, and just like the iBooks app is expected to be at launch.

This is actually something that customers have been asking for. Many people don’t use all five of the apps that are missing and would like to remove them, but they cannot. These apps made sense when the iPhone first came out because there was no way to add apps besides what shipped with the iPhone. But today there are many other choices, and none of these apps have any core functionality that is important to the OS itself. Every single app that is left is important because they serve a core function, sync back to iTunes or interface with other apps in some way. None of the missing five have any APIs or other ways to interact with other apps. They are truly optional functions of the device that could be fully removed without affecting the basic functions of the devices.

I think this is where Occam’s Razor comes in to play. The simplest explanation is the most likely. I could be wrong. In fact, I hope I am wrong because I love it when Apple surprises us with something we don’t expect.

What is your theory on this? Am I spot on or dead wrong? Maybe you have heard or developed another theory. Let us know what you think in the comments. It will give us all something to do while we wait.