I may not be as good at prognostication as certain other people with my same last name. But as a critic who saw over 100 movies in 2012, I thought I’d weigh in on what to expect on Sunday night. Once again, don’t forget to tune in to our first annual Academy Awards live blog at 7:30 (Eastern) on Sunday night:
If it were up to me it would be “Zero Dark Thirty,” the best movie of 2012, but a whole bunch of idiots among the pundit and political class, who lack basic comprehension skills, decided that wasn’t acceptable. I’d be fine with “Lincoln” getting it, but I think we all know it’s going to be “Argo.”
Kathryn Bigelow was inexplicably not nominated, and neither was Ben Affleck, so I guess Steven Spielberg wins by default. No complaints here.
How is it possible that Steven Spielberg has never directed an Oscar-winning acting performance? That streak ends Sunday, with Daniel Day-Lewis‘ inevitable victory.
If I had my druthers it’s Jessica Chastain all the way, but I don’t see Jennifer Lawrence losing out. She was great in that movie, even though I didn’t care for the film itself, and she looked about ten years too young for the character she was playing.
This category has five past winners and five Actors With a Capital A, so I doubt any of them would be too bummed out about losing. But “Lincoln” was one of Tommy Lee Jones‘ best performances, and I think he’ll manage to beat out De Niro and Waltz.
Despite- or perhaps because of- that fact that every second of her performance was calibrated towards winning her an Oscar, Anne Hathaway is going to win for “Les Miserables.” Jacki Weaver would have a shot, if the award were called “Best Impression of Estelle Costanza.”
“Zero Dark Thirty” and “Moonrise Kingdom” were my two favorite films of the year, and both have very different but equally great screenplays. Mark Boal’s, for ZD30, was both a screenplay and a fully-reported achievement of long-form journalism. Boal deserves it, but I see him losing to Quentin Tarantino for “Django Unchained.”
“Argo” (Chris Terrio) and “Lincoln” (Tony Kushner) are neck-and-neck, and I’d be happy with either winning. It’ll be Terrio, though.
Foreign Language Film
“Amour” was the only one of the five that I’ve seen- though I’ve heard excellent things about “No”- and since it’s a Best Picture nominee I figure it has to win here.
Much as “Wreck-It Ralph” was much better and deserves it way more, I think “Brave” is the one to beat.
Much as I hate to pick against “Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare,” Pixar’s wonderful “Paperman” should and will win.
As usual the nominees here are a mess, with no “Queen of Versailles” to be seen. “How to Survive a Plague” is a great, great film, but I think it loses to “The Invisible War.” At least “Bully” wasn’t nominated.
I didn’t care for “Life of Pi,” but its effects were incredible and I think it wins here. “The Hobbit”‘s visual effects made me want to vomit, so no clue why that was nominated.
I guess “Lincoln” for this, although “Life of Pi” has a shot, too, if only for the Island of Meerkats sequence
“Les Miserables.” Does the facial hair in “Lincoln” count as costume design?
Sound Editing/Sound Mixing:
“Argo” for both.
I suppose “Argo” has to win for the way it juggled its third act. Why “Silver Linings Playbook” was nominated for this is a mystery. Were the cuts between the dance contest and the football bet that impressive?
I guess “Les Miz” by default, since Hugh Jackman looked so different in different parts of it. I’m just not prepared for the guy who designed the Goblin King’s scrotum/neck in “The Hobbit” to win an Oscar for it.
“Les Miserables” would be the pick here if it hadn’t been so plagued with unnecessary closeups that made that design so hard to see, so I choose “Lincoln.”
The new song in “Les Miz” kind of sucks, and if a “Ted” song was going to be nominated, it should’ve been “Fuck You Thunder.” So congrats, Adele, you win for “Skyfall.”
I don’t remember anything about the music in “Argo,” so you win again, John Williams, for “Lincoln.”
Note: I’ve seen none of the nominees for Documentary or Live Action short, so I’m not qualified to pick in those categories.