iSuppli says Windows Mobile will be #2 by 2012

Really? According to iSuppli, who claims to “helps clients improve performance in the electronics value chain by providing them with the facts, analysis and advice they require to know precisely how to succeed”, Windows Mobile is far from out, in fact, they’ll take over the #2 position in mobile operating systems thanks to 3 major factors.

Factor 1: Complete ecosystem

The ace card in Windows Mobile’s hand is ownership of a complete infrastructure essential for the success of a smart-phone operating system. I would dumb this statement down to merely: “it works with Windows” and move on.

Factor 2: Licensees

Companies like HTC and LG license Windows Mobile to put on their phones. Windows Mobile has more licensees than anyone, including Symbian. iSuppli says Windows Mobile has 14 licensees while Symbian only has 11.

Factor 3: Windows 7

iSuppli is certain that Windows Mobile 7 will wipe away and shortcomings the OS has and more.

“Microsoft in 2010 will introduce an updated version of its operating system, Windows Mobile 7, which is expected to sport an enhanced user interface and browser as well as multi-touch control,” Tina Teng, senior wireless communications analyst for iSuppli, predicted. “This will make it much more competitive with the alternatives on the market.”

Gadgetell’s Analysis (or complete lack thereof)

Really? Here is my take:

• Ecosystem: not as critical now with the proliferation of apps. Take a look at the Apple App Store; think of almost anything and there is at least 3 apps for it.
• Licensees: Get it while you can. With the explosive growth of Android, which is free by the way, paid OS could soon very well become a thing of the past. Symbian may have fewer licensees but Nokia is one of them.
• Windows Mobile 7: From what we’ve figured out, maybe. But the problem remains that it is starting so far behind in the app game, it might not matter too much. Apple says it’s passed the 2 billion apps download mark and 85,000 of them on the shelf. Just today another analyst predicted that when/if Apple ends the exclusive with AT&T and heads to Verizon, Apple could double the already lucrative market for the iPhone. That’s a big deal and might be too tough for WinMo to overcome.

Read [iSuppli]

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