Analyst IDC announced where they believe smartphones will be in 2014. This year, IDC predicts manufacturers will ship nearly 270 million smartphones (compared to just 173 million in 2009) which equates to a 55.5% increase. There’s no question the smartphone market is booming, where questions arise is IDC’s prediction of market share.
IDC extended their forecasts out to 2014, a few four years in the future. Here are the highlights:
Windows Phone jumps 43% but is still in 5th place. Windows phone a hit?
Apple iOS falls to just 10.9%, a fourth place finish. iOS crumbles under stress?
BlackBerry remains flat, posting a negative 3.5% loss at 17.3%. An impressive feat.
Android climbs an impressive 51.2% and nabs second place. Android keeps rolling.
Symbian remains top banana, commanding 32.9% of the market, but continuing to lose customers. Who?
Looking at Windows Mobile, IDC expects a rise in market share from 6.8% to 9.8% (a 43% jump in 4 years). While four years may seem like a lot of time, if we go by past expectations, Windows Phone 7.4 should just be ready to ship (small joke). Clearly, IDC sees Windows Phone having some success to pull out of the nose dive they’ve been in for years.
Is it possible that with better competition, Apple’s iOS will lose customers and land around just 10% of the smartphone business? Word has it, iPhone 8 will totally fix the antennae attenuation issue. According to the IDC forecast, iOS will decrease by 25%.
webOS, listed in the “other” category, doesn’t do much to draw attention to itself. IDC throws them a 0.2% gain in market share thinking HP will at the very least put some money behind the platform. Unless they are privy to HP new designs and secrets, it’s tough to predict. Will webOS grow out of HP?
While the percentages overall may sound ridiculous, I don’t think they are outlandish. See my addtional column above: just loss or gain of marketshare and the numbers are pretty tame. IDC bets that Android will rise high, taking some iOS customers with it. Symbian will continue to slide, while RIM seems to be able to hold on to what they’ve got.
Is this voodoo anything to worry about? Not any more than your magic 8 ball. What do you think? Do you see where IDC slipped up and misjudged a platform? Let us know in the comments.