File this one under “potentially crazy analyst predictions.” IDC (International Data Corporation) is claiming that in four years Windows Phone will hold the number two spot among mobile platforms. That would put iOS number three by that year.
Actually, according to IDC’s numbers iOS is number three at the moment. The numbers above have the top platforms, in order, as: Symbian, Android, iOS, BlackBerry, Windows Phone, and “Others.” Of note is that Windows Phone includes Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile which goes back to version 5. By 2015 IDC claims Symbian will move to the bottom with 0.2 percent of the market (behind “Others”) moving Android up to the top, with Windows Phone taking number two. Apparently iOS and BlackBerry will retain their market share with roughly the same numbers.
The big reason behind all of this? Nokia’s switch to Windows Phone 7. IDC apparently believes that most everyone who uses Symbian on a Nokia device will follow the company in it’s OS switch. As much as I’d like to believe that, it seems very unlikely. Some users certainly will move to WP7 when the phones become available, and more people might switch from other platforms because of the Nokia hardware. I’d suspect that it would bring more people to Android, iOS, and WebOS as well. Windows Phone might, and should gaining more market share, but going to number two at this point seems unrealistic unless Google and Apple stagnate sometime in the next four years. Of course this is just my speculation, and I am by no means an analyst.