Opinion: Kinect about to get lost in the holiday shuffle

I went into E3 2010 wanting Microsoft to prove me wrong about Kinect. I wanted to see a killer app showing me why Kinect is a must purchase. I came away really only interested in the ESPN features.

It is (or will be) cool to be able to voice activate my Xbox just like they did with the computers in Star Trek but not $150 worth of cool. No, with all the Black Friday deals and Christmas gift cards, $150 can net me all the games I want this Fall. I’m talking about the likes ofNeed for Speed: Hot Pursuit and Call of Duty: Black Ops. None of them are on Kinect.

Microsoft talked a good game about motion control but nearly everything they have shown so far already exists on the Nintendo Wii. I already own a Wii and would rather buy some of the mind blowing games Nintendo has on the way. I’m not somebody that requires a 300 game library at launch, either. I bought an N64 primarily for two games, Super Smash Bros and WWF Wrestlemania. My friends and I enjoyed those games so much it wouldn’t have mattered if there were another playable game on the system. When I found out the N64 also gave me access to GoldenEye and The Legend of Zelda:Ocarina of Time, it was just gravy.

I know my wife and kids are Kinect’s real target audience but they are content with our current systems. If I ask whether they would rather me buy a $150 attachment for the 360 or 5 or 6 more games split between the Wii and 360, I already know the answer.

Microsoft is actually one of its own biggest competitors this holiday season. The warranty on my current system expires in early 2011. It would be a much safer and smarter investment to pick up a 360 slim in preparation of the impending Red Ring.

Sony, on the other hand, is releasing games with PlayStation Move that at least pique my interest. Sorcery has great potential to be a fun portrayal of being a wizard. On the list of geek fantasies, that is right up there with being a Jedi Knight or Morgan Webb’s boyfriend. If it works, that control scheme can be ported over to a host of Harry Potter games. That could be a license to print money.

While Kinect almost carries a new system’s price tag, it is not a new system. If it has the less than successful launch I’m afraid it will, developers are going to begin cutting their losses and jumping ship. At that point, Kinect likely won’t last long enough to be a big factor. Look at how quickly Microsoft abandoned 1 vs. 100 and it had a largely successful launch.

Read [Gamertell]